Every one of President Donald Trump’s key nominees is now on track for confirmation after a series of last-minute shake-ups in the Senate, betting markets on Polymarket show.
Republican Senator Todd Young, a key swing vote on the Senate Intel Committee, has pledged to vote “Yes” on Tulsi Gabbard, effectively securing her confirmation as Director of National Intelligence. Young had been hesitant, but sources say a private meeting with Gabbard last night sealed the deal. Moderate Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), who was also on the fence, additionally pledged her support to Gabbard last night
Meanwhile, Senator Bill Cassidy is now expected to vote “Yes” on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination as Secretary of Health and Human Services, another crucial pick. Cassidy, a physician and vaccine advocate long seen as a wild card, reportedly reached his decision after intense lobbying from conservative allies. Vice President JD Vance has been especially credited with swaying the senator during an “honest” meeting in the 11th hour.
The betting markets have taken notice. Polymarket odds now show Tulsi Gabbard at a 98% chance of confirmation, with RFK Jr. also sitting at 98%.
Kash Patel, Trump’s pick for FBI Director, is nearly locked in with a 97% chance of confirmation. Lori Chavez-DeRemer holds the same percentage, suggesting her appointment is all but guaranteed.
Brooke Rollins and Mike Huckabee are the safest bets of all, boasting 99% confirmation odds. Their hearings faced little resistance, and Senate Republicans have stood firmly behind them.
These developments mark a stunning reversal from just weeks ago when several nominees faced uphill battles. With Young and Cassidy shifting in favor, Democrats now have almost no path to blocking Trump’s picks.
Gabbard, the former Democrat who became an independent, is seen as one of the most surprising yet strategic appointments. Her confirmation would further cement Trump’s outreach beyond the GOP base.
RFK Jr.’s impending approval signals Trump’s willingness to bring in unconventional allies. The environmental lawyer and vaccine skeptic has built a following across the political spectrum.
With the final votes expected later this week, Trump’s administration is on the verge of scoring a major victory. This clean sweep of confirmations would showcase the former president’s newfound dominance over Washington after a tumultuous road back to the White House.
Senate Democrats are running out of options, and their attempts to stall now look futile. Even moderate Republicans they hoped to sway are firmly in Trump’s corner.
If the numbers hold, Trump will have successfully placed some of the most unconventional figures in top government positions. The political establishment can only watch in disbelief as the new order takes shape.
